The NFL Draft is an inexact science. Every team thinks the player they’re drafting, especially in the first round, is going to be that guy. Unfortunately, the numbers are against teams. Not all 32 draft picks will be Hall of Fame caliber, let alone make a Pro Bowl. Coaches and General Managers are fired for making the wrong decisions all the time. If you draft a quarterback that isn’t any good you know your job will probably go along with the roster spot. Very few drafts produce an abundance of greats like the 1983 Draft which included John Elway(1st overall pick), Eric Dickerson(#2), Bruce Matthews(#9), Jim Kelly(#14), Dan Marino(#27), and Darrell Green(#28). All of which are considered among the best (if not the best) player to ever play the position.
The 2018 draft is expected to see at least five quarterbacks getting their named called early. Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, and Josh Rosen are all expected to be off the board by pick 15 (according to ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.). What are the odds that all turn out to be Hall of Famers? Mayfield and Jackson are Heisman Trophy winners; Rosen would have been the #1 pick two years ago if players didn’t have to spend three seasons post school. Some say Darnold has the highest upside of potential and Allen can throw a football 80 yards in the air. Fortunately for these players the so called “quarterback needy” teams are in a position to let these rookies sit and learn. The Browns made a late acquisition for Tyrod Taylor, The New York Giants have Eli Manning, Jets re-signed Josh McCown and brought in Teddy Bridgewater; Denver signed Case Keenum to a multi-year deal and Arizona got Sam Bradford and Buffalo have A.J. McCarron. Of course the odds are some third round pick, like Joe Montana or a sixth rounder (Tom Brady) will be amongst the best in the class. I am not saying Ryan Finley or Luke Falk are going to be considered “the goat” but chances are one of those guys are going to end up being considered a steal.
One thing that should never be forgotten is that the draft guru himself, Mel Kiper Jr., gave the Seattle Seahawks draft of 2012 a C- grade. Well, that draft produced Bruce Irvin, Bobby Wagner, Russell Wilson, Jaye Howard, Jeremy Lane and J.R. Sweezy. They (the Seattle Seahawks) also signed Jermaine Kearse as a free agent that same year. Those players subsequently signed deals worth $140 million in guaranteed money. So no, not even the experts are always right.